14 kognitívnych predsudkov, ktoré môžu zabrániť konzistentným ziskom z obchodovania

Forexové obchodovanie je podnik, ktorý si vyžaduje analytické myslenie. Vyžaduje si schopnosť robiť racionálne rozhodnutia. Ale bohužiaľ, naše mozgy nie sú pri obchodovaní vždy úplne racionálne alebo objektívne. Kognitívne predsudky prispievajú k našej občasnej subjektivite.

Kognitívne predsudky sú mentálne skratky, ktoré môžu ovplyvniť náš rozhodovací proces. Často nás pri obchodných aktivitách vedú na scestie. Ich pochopením a rozpoznaním môžeme zlepšiť svoju obchodnú výkonnosť.

V dnešnom príspevku sa pozrieme na štrnásť kognitívnych predsudkov, ktoré môžu ovplyvniť našu obchodnú výkonnosť, a tiež poskytneme stratégie na zmiernenie ich vplyvu:

1. Nadmerná sebadôvera

Overconfidence bias occurs when traders overestimate their knowledge or have an inflated belief in their skills. This usually leads them to take excessive risks.

Although confidence is useful in forex trading, overconfidence can result in overtrading, impulzívnym obchodným decisions, and substantial losses.

To combat overconfidence, regularly assess your trading strategies objectively, challenge your assumptions by looking at them from different angles, and maybe seek feedback from others.

2. Skreslenie potvrdenia

Confirmation bias is very common in trading. It is the tendency to seek out and interpret information that confirms our existing beliefs. Traders afflicted by this bias may ignore warning signs.

They may tend to focus only on data that supports their trade thesis or information that aligns with their existing beliefs.

To overcome this bias in your trading activities, you must actively seek opposing viewpoints. Conduct thorough research to understand the broader market dynamics.

3. Averzia voči strate

Loss aversion leads traders to prefer avoiding losses over making gains. We feel the pain of losses more intensely than the pleasure of gains.

Our decisions start being driven by strachom z obchodovania such as fear of losing.

This causes us to hold onto losing positions for too long. We become reluctant to exit losing trades, hoping for a reversal. As a result, we put our funds in danger, and also miss profitable opportunities.

To overcome loss aversion, we must establish clear stop-loss orders and adhere to them diligently.

4. Zakotvenie skreslenia

Anchoring bias occurs when traders fixate on specific prices or values, making it difficult to adapt to changing market conditions.

For example, if we see a currency pair reach a specific price level, we may anchor our expectations and base our future trading decisions on that level (even if the market dynamics have since changed).

To mitigate anchoring bias, continually reassess your trading decisions and avoid being overly attached to initial price targets.

5. Zaujatosť spätného pohľadu

Hindsight bias (also known as the “I knew it all along” phenomenon) is a cognitive bias that causes us to believe that we could have predicted an event’s outcome accurately after it has occurred.

It makes us feel like a god. It often leads us to overestimate our ability to predict the market and underestimate the role of uncertainty and randomness.

It can lead to overconfidence and reckless trading.

Prevent hindsight bias by keeping detailed obchodný denník a objektívne analyzovať svoje rozhodnutia.

6. Heuristika dostupnosti

The availability heuristic causes traders to rely on readily available information, often ignoring less accessible but equally important data.

Combat this bias by using a comprehensive approach to market research and analysis.

7. Zaujatosť pripisovania seba samého

Self-attribution bias leads traders to credit themselves for successful trades while attributing losses to external factors.

Maintain a realistic self-assessment and acknowledge the role of luck in trading outcomes.

8. Stádovitá mentalita

Mentalita stáda is the tendency to follow the crowd, even if it contradicts your own analysis.

Avoid this bias by developing a well-defined trading strategy and sticking to it, regardless of popular sentiment.

9. Skreslenie aktuálnosti

Recency bias occurs when recent events have an outsized impact on decision-making. We overreact to recent market movements. 

If a currency pair has been consistently moving in one direction for the past few days, traders may assume that the trend will continue indefinitely, leading them to enter trades based solely on this recent movement.

To beat this bias, ensure your trading strategies are based on a broad range of historical data, not just recent trends.

10. Klamstvo hazardného hráča

The gambler’s fallacy involves believing that past outcomes influence future probabilities (even when each event is independent and unrelated).

Forex traders affected by the hráčskym omylom may believe that if a currency pair has been continually moving in a particular direction, it is more likely to reverse in the opposite direction in the next trade.

To overcome this, develop a trading plan based on sound analysis rather than relying on the idea that a losing streak is bound to change.

11. Efekt dotácie

Efekt dotácie spôsobuje, že obchodníci nadhodnocujú aktíva, ktoré vlastnia. Vedie nás k držaniu stratových pozícií. Bojujte proti tejto predpojatosti stanovením vopred definovaných bodov ukončenia a držte sa ich.

12. Averzia voči ľútosti

Regret aversion can make traders hesitant to make necessary changes (due to fear of regret). To overcome this bias, be willing to accept mistakes.

Also, adapt your trading strategies as needed.

13. Kognitívna disonancia

Kognitívna disonancia nastáva vtedy, keď obchodníci ospravedlňujú zlé rozhodnutia, aby znížili psychologický diskomfort. Zostaňte objektívni a vyhnite sa ospravedlňovaniu zlých obchodných rozhodnutí.

14. Ukotvenie k minulým cenám

Zakotvenie v minulých cenách sťažuje úpravu vstupných a výstupných bodov obchodu. Zamerajte sa na aktuálne trhové podmienky a vyhnite sa prílišnému ovplyvňovaniu minulými cenami.



Cognitive biases are a part of human nature, but in trading, they can lead to costly mistakes. So, it is important to recognize these biases and actively work to counteract their influence. This is crucial for successful trading.

Develop a disciplined approach, keep detailed records, seek diverse perspectives, and continually refine your strategies.

By doing these things, you can navigate the financial markets with greater objectivity and improve your overall trading performance.